5 Backfields to Watch for Fantasy Football in Week 3
Nothing feels more comforting in fantasy football than having a reliable RB room. The elite guys give you both a weekly floor and ceiling that few players provide at any position. Even the second tier of running backs can sit in your starting lineup all year without causing a worry. If you have two of those types of players – Congrats. Happy for you. Nice.
But for the rest of us, we need to find the diamonds in the rough, watch usage trends, and hope that we can cobble together a Frankensteined RB room that scores enough points to keep us afloat. And for that reason, we look at the backfields that are facing a shakeup two weeks through the season.
New Orleans Saints
Travis Etienne was supposed to be a bell cow running back for the New Orleans Saints after signing a $48 million contract in the offseason. After one week, Kendre Miller was being touted as a breakout running back that may be too good to keep off the field. Fast forward all the way to Week 2 and Miller is a healthy scratch meanwhile Alvin Kamara is leading the Saints in touches.
It seems that Kellen Moore has committed to this split-backfield approach, so now the question becomes how to navigate it for fantasy purposes. A split backfield doesn’t mean no fantasy potential. Look to David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs in Detroit, Kyle Monangai and D’Andre Swift in Chicago, or Kyren Williams and Blake Corum in L.A. Great offenses can produce multiple fantasy relevant performers at the running back position.
And the Saints, so far, are a great offense. Through two weeks the Saints are 9th in scoring, 6th in yards, and 2nd in plays. Kellen Moore’s second year leading this offense is resulting in the type of jump that many predicted over the offseason.
While Etienne’s usage has been disappointing, he’s been more efficient in his touches than Kamara across the board. On a per carry basis, Etienne leads Kamara in yards, missed tackles forced, and yards after contact. Kamara’s decline in efficiency doesn’t seem to be turning around, as he’s only finished one season above 4 yards per carry across the past 5 years.
Etienne outplaying Kamara is the lowest of bars to hurdle, however. Etienne ranks outside the top 24 in yards per carry, missed tackles forced per carry, and yards after contact per carry.
The secret to fantasy relevance in a split backfield is dominating high value touches. Targets and redzone opportunities carry more fantasy value than a regular carry. In their one game together, Kamara dominated both targets and redzone opportunities. While Kamara’s 6 targets to Etienne’s 2 seem significant, the fact that Etienne ran more routes than Kamara makes me think that difference in targets could flip any given week.
The more important takeaway is that Alvin Kamara had 2 opportunities in the redzone in this game (a target and a carry) to none for Etienne. That shows a conscious effort by Kellen Moore to get Kamara involved in the most important area of the field.
One game of Kamara and Etienne playing together is not enough for firm takeaways, but the early signs indicate that the value difference between Etienne and Kamara should be much smaller than anyone thought before the season. With running back production so hard to come by, Kamara should be rostered in all but the shallowest leagues, while Etienne should probably be on the bench in most leagues until we see significantly improved usage.
Over the course of the season, it’s hard to see a 31-year-old Kamara earn any more of a role, and that’s why I have him ranked as the RB38 in my Rest of Season Rankings compared to Etienne who ranks RB25. On a weekly basis though, the gap will be much smaller until we see Etienne’s usage improve, starting this week with only a 6-spot difference in my Week 3 RB Rankings.
New England Patriots
Just as the fantasy community was getting on board with Rhamondre Stevenson as the clear lead back for the Patriots, Stevenson may have fumbled away the job – literally. A costly fumble in Week 2 seems to have led to TreVeyon Henderson taking over a larger workload.
This backfield may be one of the most frustrating for fantasy to navigate each week. There is plenty of scoring potential, but who receives that opportunity each week seems to be a coin toss.
While Henderson’s youth and explosiveness lead some to believe his takeover of the backfield is inevitable, Stevenson has been the more heavily used back when both are healthy – until this week.
Henderson’s explosiveness is certainly evident. A 39-yard run early in the game may have spurred the Patriots to running with him as the primary back the rest of their Week 2 matchup. But outside of that big run, Henderson managed just 37 yards on 15 carries.
In terms of the most valuable touches around the goal line, we’ve yet to see what the usage will be. Through two games the Patriots have only seen 3 red zone opportunities, with none of them going to the running back position. Therein lies the larger problem. This Patriots offense has not matched their output from last year. If they did, we could reasonably see this as a backfield with two fantasy performers, but not with their current struggles.
Week 2 saw a fairly even split of pass catching duties, with Henderson running 11 routes to Stevenson’s 10, but Stevenson managed 2 targets to none for Henderson. With such a split in a game where Henderson took over the primary workload, it seems Stevenson is at least safe in his role as the primary pass catching back for now.
With that pass catching role and a coin flip in the running game, I’ll continue to rank Stevenson slightly above Henderson in the weekly rankings (2 spots ahead this week), but rest of season Henderson gets a small edge due to the ceiling he offers as an explosive runner, and the increased risk of Stevenson losing the coaching staff’s trust with fumbles.
Chicago Bears
While the other backfields here have been shaken up by the emerging or underwhelming play of members of the backfield, the Bears feature is due primarily to the recent injury to Caleb Williams.
It seems Williams avoided the worst outcome with the injury, but it’s still expected that he’ll miss some time with a hamstring injury. Even upon his return, we may see reduced mobility from the current rushing yards leader at the position (who saw that one coming?), altering the makeup of the Bears’ offense.
So far, D’Andre Swift and Kyle Monangai have made up the most impressive backfield tandem in the NFL, leading the Bears to rank 1st in both rushing yards and touchdowns. With Caleb’s injury however, it’s TBD whether the rushing attack as a whole will maintain its productivity, and how the usage will shift between the two backs.
While an increased reliance on the run game in Williams’ absence could be seen as a positive, rarely does a downgrade at quarterback work that way. The reduced threat of the pass allows defenses to stack the box and more effectively counter the run. While both Swift and Monangai are talented, they are not talented enough to overcome predictability in the team’s offensive approach.
Of the two backs, I believe Swift is the player more insulated from these effects. Through two weeks, Swift leads the backfield in both routes and targets. His usage as a pass catcher is also more suited to the needs of a team with a backup QB. Swing passes, which Swift has been so effective on, allow the Bears to prevent defenses from stacking the box.
Even if we see a temporarily reduced efficiency out of the backfield, both backs can still offer fantasy upside, with Swift still firmly being a startable RB in my rankings. Monangai has been the most efficient back on limited usage so far this season, ranking 1st in both yards per carry and yards after contact per carry. Swift has been nearly as impressive on higher volume, ranking 10th in yards per carry and 15th in yards after contact per carry.
While it may be harder to trust Monangai in your starting lineup while Caleb is out, Ben Johnson’s abilities as a play caller should ensure this backfield’s floor remains quite high.
Green Bay Packers
The Packers backfield situation has been the exact opposite of the Bears’. The Packers have failed to get anything going in the running game, ranking dead last in the NFL in rushing yards.
Marshawn Lloyd received the first crack at the starting job, but has looked hesitant as a runner. He’s failed to show off the explosive, big-play ability that made him an interesting prospect coming out of college. He’s managed to break tackles at a good rate (ranking 21st among RBs) but hasn’t been able to turn that into any big gains.
Kaleb Johnson got his first shot at the lead role in Week 2, and while he led the team in carries and yards per carry, his limitations were evident. Johnson is not a physical runner, despite his size, and is far from decisive. While he has the speed to take the top off a defense if given sufficient runway, those opportunities do not make themselves available nearly as often in the NFL as he saw in college.
Neither Lloyd nor Johnson have managed to work in heavily in the passing game either, an area where Chris Brooks has led the team.
With a 3-way-split I don’t intend on starting any of these backs. I currently have Lloyd and Johnson ranked back-to-back as RB38 and 39 for Week 3. My biggest takeaway from the struggles of this backfield is that Josh Jacobs’ value is quickly rising. Jacobs’ return feels more and more likely as no new negative news comes out of his legal situation.
While there was potential that even upon his return Jacobs would lose work to Lloyd, the third-year back’s struggles make that threat seem less dangerous to Jacobs’ fantasy outlook. A severely banged up offensive line for the Packers limits Jacobs’ ceiling somewhat still, but the lack of success from his competition in his absence has pushed him to RB36 in my rest of season RB rankings.
Denver Broncos
Jonah Coleman’s emergence into the backfield rotation for Denver turned some heads in the fantasy community. Anytime a rookie RB is thrust into a significant role the potential for fantasy value is very high.
It seems that Coleman’s fall back to obscurity may be as quick as his rise into relevance, however. All three backs in this Denver backfield are banged up, but Coleman is the only one to miss practice in the lead up to Week 3.
RJ Harvey missed Week 2 with a hamstring injury, but is progressing in practice and looks like he’ll be ready to play in Week 3. JK Dobbins left the Week 2 matchup early, but reporting has been ambiguous on whether it was due to an injury or cramps. While a limited practice to start the week could be evidence he did face a minor injury, it wouldn’t be unusual for a veteran back with an injury history like Dobbins to see limited work in practice early in the week.
When all three backs for this team are healthy, it’ll be hard to rank any of them very highly for fantasy. Coleman’s usage in Week 2 may make it hard for the Broncos to remove him entirely from the gameplan moving forward, but he didn’t do much to earn a large role. Coleman didn’t take on a significant role in the passing game, running only 6 routes, tied with 4th string RB Tyler Badie. Coleman did split redzone work with Dobbins, however.
RJ Harvey provided fantasy value last year with his pass catching, but his limited production on the ground may result in Coleman taking what little work he sees in the running game. Coleman did show he has pass catching skills during his time in college, so it’s also possible he pushes Harvey as a pass catcher.
Dobbins has clearly been the most efficient runner for the Broncos, averaging 0.22 missed tackles forced per carry (18th among RBs) and 3.33 yards after contact per attempt (17th among RBs). His early down role may be safe, but without the potential to earn work in the passing game, and the Broncos offense struggling, the ceiling for Dobbins is very limited.
Dobbins’ safer floor makes him my top choice to start going into Week 3, but this will be a split to watch moving forward, especially once all three backs are healthy.